NASCAR at Dover odds and picks: Kyle Larson dominates at the Monster Mile but can he finish? -

1. You hate to see Alex Bowman out with an injury — especially something as serious as a fractured vertebra — but this does open the door again for Josh Berry, who has two top-10 finishes in the Cup Series and has been tearing up the Xfinity tour. Where are Berry’s strengths, in terms of courses? And does he have a shot to excel in Dover this weekend?

Jeff: Berry came up through the short track ranks, so his strengths are places like Martinsville (though that’s not to say he can’t win elsewhere, obviously). And although Dover is a 1-mile, high-banked track that has sometimes been referred to as “Bristol on steroids,” it’s fairly unique in terms of how it races. That said, Berry seems to have figured out the place pretty well. He won last year’s Dover race while leading 55 laps and finished second while leading 48 laps in 2021. The Cup Series is obviously a different animal, but Hendrick Motorsports has been fantastic at Dover and Berry should have a great opportunity to have a solid day on Sunday.

Jordan: Short tracks are Berry’s speciality, especially Martinsville where he has lots there from his days at the grassroots level. Unfortunately for Berry, NASCAR visited Martinsville two weeks ago and won’t be back until the fall. But Dover is another good track for him, and considering Hendrick won the past races there – Elliott in 2022, Bowman in 2021 – Berry has sleeper potential this weekend.

NOOB follow-up: Berry will be driving a different car than when he was filling in for Elliott, right? He has to drive a specific car as a substitute? How do these cars differ?

Jeff: Well, he’ll be with the No. 48 team instead of the No. 9 team, and thus have a crew chief that may set up the car differently for him. But it won’t be *that* different, because Hendrick likely builds all its cars in a similar way and the teams will share notes on what Berry likes out of his cars. Plus, all the cars are spec cars now anyway. So aside from the number on the door, the car itself shouldn’t be too different.

Jordan: As Jeff noted, with Berry still in a Hendrick-owned car this fill-in stint shouldn’t be all that different from when he substituted for Elliott. The biggest difference is he’ll be working with crew chief Blake Harris this go round than Alan Gustafson.

2. Jeff, you noted in your Top 5 that some drivers believe Dover is a predictor of the eventual regular season champion. Christopher Bell is leading the points now. Will he have a good day on Sunday?

Jeff: Bell finally had a good result at Dover last year when he finished fourth, but hadn’t finished in the top 20 in three previous starts before that. That said, don’t discount his skill there: Bell won two Xfinity races at Dover and clearly knows how to get around a place he calls one of his favorite tracks. Will the Joe Gibbs Racing cars bring strength there, though? Hendrick is going to be the favorite and JGR could be a half-step behind (at least based on many races this season), so I’d still lean toward a Hendrick driver over Bell.

Jordan: Although his stats indicate otherwise, Dover is a good track for Bell and him winning Sunday wouldn’t be surprising. His crew chief, Adam Stevens, also has a good handle on this track. That said, this has the feel of a Hendrick weekend where one of William Byron, Kyle Larson or Chase Elliott is celebrating what would be Hendrick’s fifth win in 11 races this season.

3. Who is a long shot you like in this race?

Jeff: None. Don’t even bother, in my opinion. Dover is a track where teams and drivers show strength, and someone who hasn’t won a bunch of races isn’t going to suddenly show up there and do well. If you look at the list of Dover winners in the last 25 years, every single driver with the exception of Bowman (2021) is going to end up on the NASCAR’s 75 Greatest Drivers list they’re currently rolling out. And it’s not like Bowman’s victory was a stunner; he’d already won three times in his career before that day, including a few weeks earlier at Richmond. The point is it’s highly doubtful we’re going to see anyone with longer than +3000 odds win this race.

Jordan: Upsets rarely, rarely occur at Dover, but if you’re inclined to pick someone outside the usual suspects then Ricky Stenhouse Jr. is worth considering. He finished second here last year, plus he comes in exhibiting a level of consistency that he’s never demonstrated throughout his career. So if you want a sleeper, Stenhouse is your pick.

4. According to DriverAverages.com, Kyle Larson has been dominant at Dover since 2020, leading 35.3% of laps in his two races and finishing Top 10 both times. He’s still the favorite, but his odds are +500 (or 5-to-1). Is this something we should jump on immediately?

Jeff: Though he’s only won at Dover once, Larson is elite there. His average finish (6.9) is easily the best in the field (Elliott is next-best at 9.8 and no one else is under 11). So yes, Larson is a solid bet at those odds. Before looking at the odds, I would have put all of the regular Hendrick drivers up there – and that’s indeed how they’re positioned. It feels like Hendrick is going to have a good day there, but which car will be best among them is the question. In short: Larson, William Byron and Elliott are all going to be strong and it’s hard to say which one will prevail.

Jordan: Larson is the favorite on Sunday and the stats back that up. Byron and Elliott will likely be big factors too, but how Larson runs here cannot be ignored.

5. Relatedly, it looks like Kevin Harvick has four top-10 finishes in four Dover races since 2020, is second in laps led (far behind at 15.7%) and is sitting at 11-1. Is this a case of Harvick being a finisher and Larson just not being able to close things out? Is being a finisher a thing? We saw poor Bubba Wallace and Ryan Blaney take each other out right at the end last week…

Jeff: Harvick’s ninth-place finish at Dover last year was his worst result since 2017. So yeah, he’s pretty good there. Harvick currently has eight straight top-10s at Dover, including two wins and another race in which he led 286 laps but finished sixth. “The Closer” and crew chief Rodney Childers could absolutely hit on the right setup Sunday and drive to another win, which would be fitting in Harvick’s final appearance at a track where he’s won three times. On the other hand, they’re probably going to have to be perfect to beat the Hendrick and JGR cars. Not saying it can’t happen, but it won’t be easy.

Jordan: Dover is a track with a tendency to see long stretches of green-flag racing, which favors drivers and crew chiefs who know how to be fast over these periods. And wouldn’t you know it, this is a speciality for Harvick and Childers. This formula nearly won them the race at Phoenix in March until an ill-timed caution ruined their bid. If you’re looking for someone outside the Hendrick and JGR camps, go with Harvick.

Würth 400 at Dover odds

(Top photo: James Gilbert/Getty Images; in-line image: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports)

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